May 27

3 Stages of Opening International Travel Back Up

Several countries are in the process of opening back up and some have already did. Here are my thoughts on the phases of opening up.
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Video Transcription:
Hey, guys so I thought I’d weigh in on the transport industry and what I think will happen and you know where my thoughts are on this and it comes from speaking to guys in the travel industry and guys you know that run hotels and things like that and what’s likely to happen.
I think the first thing that’s likely to happen is staycation you know most people if you look at China reopened they had 1.9 million people travel the weekend it opened you know which doesn’t sound like a lot but actually for the first weekend you know that’s a huge amount of people who went out and actually that was out of Hubei province I think it was but um but the bottom line is you know I think what will happen in most countries is as soon as they’re allowed to leave they’ll get out and they’ll do a staycation they won’t be able to fly internationally to a large degree. I think that’s going to be stage two or three so.
Stage one is that the local market is going to benefit from these staycations yeah because people have gone stir crazy in the house they want to get out and do something they want to get out and be out somewhere you know and great news so that’s you know that’s good.
That’s the first phase now that doesn’t help the airline industry at all but it does help hotels and things like that in whatever country you’re in you know I mean as a family we’re talking about lets you know maybe do a staycation on
Sentosa you know which is an island just to the south of Singapore so Singapore’s an island about this big and Sentosa is an island about that big but you know to get away with the kids it’d be great um you know because we’re not going to be travelling to Thailand or doing any of the sorts of the usual stuff that we might do you know but the bottom line is we can do a staycation and most people I think that can and haven’t really been affected too much by this we’ll do a staycation.
You know the other side of it is you know I’m actually one of these I’m doing is I’m turning one of my properties which is in a city centre in one of the cities and I’m going to turn it into an effectively a staycation place for my team and I’ll probably Airbnb it. You know we’ll see what happens um who knows um but the bottom line is we’ll do that because they can’t fly to the place in Spain you know so that’s fine.
Phase two so I think what’s going to start to happen in places like it I’m already hearing this Australia and New Zealand they’ll have a free fly zone, in other words, they’ll live back up so you’ve got to fly between the two and yeah you’re going to have tests and things like that and there’ll be some restrictions and you’ll probably have to wear ppe on them on the you know on the plane but that travel will be opened up and potentially Singapore will be in that bubble as well and there’ll be these bubbles open up yeah and what will happen is there’ll be restrictions on what they can and can’t do so you might have to get a test you know within the three days before you fly you know and then that test comes back and confirms you haven’t got it and then you’re allowed to fly.
Things like that I think will be the next phase before we open up to eventually, where we get back to we can fully fly and also stuff and potentially you’ll have what you’ve got in china which is like a health passport which is on your phone and basically it’s a QR code that you wherever you walk you do that.
I mean in Singapore now they’re kind of not it’s not an app you have your IC card yeah which is your identity card and that everywhere you walk into a supermarket now they scan your identity card and that also helps with the contact tracing it helps you or it helps them find you know if someone has it there and you’ve been there they can contact you and say stay at home for the next two weeks. Or come in for a test and then we’ll decide whether you can uh you know go out and things like that.
I think you know it’s going to be longer-term you know so for airlines and things like that’s going to be a bit longer um but I think phase one will be the local market that’s good news for local hotels and things like that um and phase two will be where there are limited bubbles and phase three will be where it opens back up and we have a normal travel but that is potentially not until I think probably you know October, November, December maybe even the following year 2021.
It will be um before it fully opens back up um it will open back up I mean it’s September 11 when that all happened everyone said right nobody’s going to be flying now but it took about two years to get back to the same capacity um that it was you know so we will humans have the ability to forget about things and actually I think what you’ll find is technology and a lot of these sort of things the technology that allows for testing because remember we’re all focused on a vaccine.
I think this is one of the other key points we’re all focused on a vaccine that says basically this will solve all our problems but actually, the other side of it is we’re focused on better testing and if we get a test where you literally go like that or you stick it up to your nose and pull it out and it gives you like a pregnancy test where it says plus or minus and it’s that quick well you know potentially you can do that 20 times a day 50 times a day you know to prove before you walk in
you know so that technology the front end will also assist with the vaccine technology we may not find a vaccine I mean that’s one of the options you know the options that we may not get a vaccine um but who knows with enough money and with enough motivation I think there is a fair bit of motivation there now, the likelihood is we probably will be okay from that perspective.
Phase one local market so you know you’ll start getting to go local phase two is the bubbles you know like the Australia, Kiwi and potentially Singapore and there may be some other countries in that bubble we’ll start and that will sort of test the process and see how it goes. See if there are any more flare-ups and then phase three is where you know it’ll open up where the world’s available again but it may be with a health passport um into the future but all right guys that’s it for me today. Stay safe and healthy and all that stuff and looking forward to the world opening back up and yeah so bring on phase one please alright guys see you later bye


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