Landlord update on where the market is. Is a recession on the way as the effect of the pandemic. Here are my thoughts as I keep you up to date on what is happening in the next few weeks and what we can look forward too in the future.
For all Brett’s Coronavirus resources https://www.gladfish.com/covid19/
Hey guys so welcome to this landlord update. I think today’s Wednesday be what is it the third now third of June. And so what I’m going to do today is just sort of give you an update on where the market is. You can always go, I’m doing I’m not emailing out every single update and every single thing I do if you want to go and check it out check out the www.gladfish.com/covid19 site and that always has as I’m posting as soon as I make a video I post it there. Even if I’m not putting it on social media even if I’m sending it out on email to you guys like I am today with this one, but basically yeah.
Look good news in terms of you know it’s almost surreal to be in what is the worst recession ever during my lifetime and I don’t care what anyone says, if you look at the stats you know never has a recession gone you know straight down and locked down the entire world. I mean it’s just unprecedented and the reality is right now we’re not seeing things come out saying much about that but what we’re about to see as of July 1st when the stats come out you’ll have two quarters of negative growth and that two quarters of negative growth will be dramatic yeah.
It will be a full-on recession now the key here is that there’s going to be lots of negative media there’s going to be this is the worst recession it’s going to drag on for years inflation this, that, the other thing everything like that it’s all going to be on the table and news outlets are going to be having a field day. You can’t buy it okay you’ve got to keep your head in the game you’ve got to keep focused you’re going to stay focused on what’s important to you and not what the media wants you to receive you know read the sensational headlines. A bit like America at the moment with the riots and all that sorts of stuff you know at the end of the day you can get caught up in all that sort of stuff it’s not going to help you in your situation. You got to guard your mental health, especially now okay you know you’re going to guard your physical health and your mental health and the media is not going to help you with that. So I just don’t watch the news, you know I’ve given up on it I mean even my videos my daily videos was doing where I was tracking cover that I just got bored with it and I’ll be honest with you a lot of the listeners got bored with it too. Because it was just like who wants to know the numbers are going up they’re going up. L
et’s focus on the positive let’s focus on what we can do let’s focus on the good things that are happening. So that’s I’ll probably get more into the recession but the reality is what’s good that’s happening. All right look if you’re a landlord with Ezytrac look if you do not then get on board, seriously speak to Caroline speak to the guys and get on board because you know we’re doing lots and lots of good things. We’re changing lots of good things since Arlene and I took over we’ve kicked out the two you know two previous general managers that we’ve had you know mistakes and just weren’t you know incompetent. Basically got rid of those Arlene and I are running the company. And things are really starting to ramp up when we really start to add new services and change you and so a lot of people have noticed that and if you haven’t noticed it you’re going to keep noticing because we are fundamentally changing.
Anyway enough of that what’s good what’s good is this is that the unemployment rate hasn’t shot up the furlough okay scheme which basically has kept people in jobs through the lockdown now we have a clear plan on how to get out of it. And it is a good plan, starts off with businesses having contributed 5% then moves to 15% then moves to 25% and then takes it away so you’ve got this you know gradual easing in which is exactly what we wanted. And it’s spot on I think what they’ve done there so you know good on the government for doing that and I know plenty of people got you know criticisms about how to handle the virus side but the economic side I can’t find fault with right now you know I really can’t it’s been fantastic. I think coming out it will save a lot of jobs now there’s going to be a lot of change out there will be unemployment will rise and all that sort of stuff because a lot of people like myself and like guys that I know who run businesses are starting to look at what it is that really is important in their business what staff do they really need in their business and what staff are perhaps you know being sitting around and doing stuff but maybe not there and maybe we don’t need them we don’t want to you know bring them into the recession. Because coming back on the recession now this is what’s going to happen from July 1st there’s going to be lots of negative media there’s going to be lots of statistics there’s going to be lots of economists and experts getting out there and telling you what’s going to happen yeah and the reality is most of them are going to be wrong most of the time because that is this and if you read my property trend cycle book you’ll see I took five property gurus I took you know economists and I looked at them all and basically how effectively wrong yeah most experts are wrong most of the time. That goes for me too you know if I’m giving you advice you know at the end of the day you have to decide what you believe and what you don’t
Now the economy is going to be bad and the rest of the year pretty much is going to be a write-off if you’re worth planning on making huge money and all that sort of stuff I know there’s a lot of marketers out there saying you know make more money you know be greedy when others are fair fearful and fearful when others are greedy and all that sort of stuff and there is now and the truth to that. For the most part, we will be in a recession you know we’ve dropped and it’s not this drop and oftentimes what happens it drops and then it starts recovering then it drops again this is gone yeah now what we’re seeing is we’re gonna come out of this it’s gonna take some time do I think it’ll be relatively quickly compared to the US? Absolutely I do.
I think the economics of what led us into it is going to help us get out of it okay there’s still a lot to be done but you know bounce back loan schemes, coronavirus business interruption schemes all this sort of stuff has really performed well economics, economics forget the virus all right that’s another story you know we have beers and talk about the failure of that the massive faith of that massive failure and success you know because I think you know there’s a lot of failures and really the numbers don’t look good for us.
A lot of what happened previously we thought hold on a sec people are going to be jumping out and not paying their rent to doing lists that hasn’t happened hasn’t come to pass. On top of that now the self-employed people are now getting their money coming so we’ve seen more rent coming in this month now which is great news. So people who couldn’t pay before we’ve started already getting the payments of the universal credits and things like that from the government which is great news. So a few of you guys that weren’t getting your rent are now going to be getting your rent. So good news from that perspective the numbers certainly have not gone up they haven’t really changed much it’s still yes rent renegotiations are probably you know 5% to 15% you know down on what they were um but you know what you kind of expect that okay in this situation. all right
The key here I think for everyone you know if we and this is for capital values and prices. As long as not people don’t just throw their properties on the market in desperation to get rid of them then, I think the prices will hold up reasonably well. They’re still going to drop but you know as we’ve been saying sort of five to ten percent I think will be where we’re at um as long as that unemployment rate doesn’t shoot through the roof.
So i think from that perspective things are looking pretty good you know um and really now if you stay away from the negative. If you’re you know your tenant stays in the property keeps paying the rent it may be a little bit less you’ve got to accept but your bank of england’s dropped rates so you lose you know you’ll that’ll be a bit cheaper. You may have you know the payment holidays you can extend the payment holidays if you’re in um thing so you can do that what else we’re going to cover here.
Look you know spring bounces here so the reality is we’re seeing an I won’t say perfectly functioning market but it is you know as good as can be. In actual fact the spring bounce that normally happens where everyone comes through the winter and go I’m not staying in this place another winter I want to go find a better place. It happens effectively now or has been happening it’s been a bit delayed but now we’re off the lockdown it’s bounced back but actually a lot of people are staying where they are. They’re still not moving which is good news so we’re not seeing the numbers of changeover that we normally do okay. That’s good news okay.
So there’s a lot of good news around it but I realized that you know it’s hard to see some of that with all the negativity and all the potential for negativity and the worry and stress about your job or your business and things like that. But I think you know the key on all fronts is you know look the way I’m looking at it is this you know I’ve got the business with furloughs on the guys I’ve never planned to get them back okay and we’re putting that plan in place one of that part of that plan was I’m going to increase my marketing because I want to generate more leads I want to bring more people in I want to make sure that we get that the funnel working yeah and so you know we’re hiring two new marketing people you know two marketing people great thing about hiring right now is you’re getting really good talent for a cheaper price yeah I don’t give you an idea my recruitment agent who’s a mate of mine Jeremy he basically on a normal he was talking about an IT job um where he was he was getting seven applications in the first week yeah previous previously greater virus that similar um position he got 83 in the first 48 hours yeah. So big jump in people and he said the quality is excellent. So now’s the time actually if you need somebody you want to get somebody good to hire but make sure you get your recruitment plan in place.
I know that’s often most people off track for most people but now is the time to really get the plan put it in place and you know don’t focus on the negativity. We are going to go into a recession but it doesn’t have to be a really bad recession okay in terms of you know individuals and that because the government has provided a lot of support and I think that will see us through this year.
Now the question of whether we have a recession next year and stay you know we’re dropped and whether we stay down or whether we actually start to come out next year is really a question of how the government responds to what’s going to happen as of July 1st, July 1st through November.
That’s when we’ll get a better idea of what’s going on okay so guys look you know things are functioning pretty well. You know if you if you’ve got that’s something that means we’re really starting to get a lot of now a lot of our existing landlords who other properties bring them across, bring them across guys it’s just so much easier having one point of contact you know the new system’s working really really well the team are you know really well trained they know what they’re doing there are these support mechanisms in there. You know just make yourself easy take that stress away from yourself okay but yeah guys any questions you’ve got send them through just send through firstname.lastname@example.org I’m happy to record videos I’ll keep doing these on a regular basis but check out the www.gladfish.com/covid19 site or in fact on all the websites at the top if you click on that it’ll take you through there but um yeah guys have a fantastic week for the rest of the week and um yeah hopefully you’re all getting out there and getting fit getting healthy spending time with family and about to start getting back into you know business all right guys see you later bye